Comments on: A. The External Approach: Building an International Consensus http://www.futureofthebook.org/iraqreport/a-the-external-approach-building-an-international-consensus/ Fri, 06 Mar 2009 22:45:31 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: James Warner http://www.futureofthebook.org/iraqreport/a-the-external-approach-building-an-international-consensus/#comment-249 James Warner Tue, 09 Jan 2007 03:34:24 +0000 http://futureofthebook.org/iraqreport/a-the-external-approach-building-an-international-consensus/#comment-249 However, as I will expand on in a later note, the authors make a false choice here and throughout the report. The possible futures in Iraq are not only stability or chaos. While it might not be in Iran or Syria's interest for Iraq to dissolve into "a humanitarian catastrophe", it could be in their interest to contnue to exert enough of a destabilizing influence to frustrate American goals, and effect a stalemate that would sap our strength the longer it lasted. However, as I will expand on in a later note, the authors make a false choice here and throughout the report. The possible futures in Iraq are not only stability or chaos. While it might not be in Iran or Syria’s interest for Iraq to dissolve into “a humanitarian catastrophe”, it could be in their interest to contnue to exert enough of a destabilizing influence to frustrate American goals, and effect a stalemate that would sap our strength the longer it lasted.

]]> By: Frances FitzGerald http://www.futureofthebook.org/iraqreport/a-the-external-approach-building-an-international-consensus/#comment-204 Frances FitzGerald Thu, 04 Jan 2007 18:38:45 +0000 http://futureofthebook.org/iraqreport/a-the-external-approach-building-an-international-consensus/#comment-204 This is the most important recommendation in the report. The civil war in Iraq will certainly continue if neighboring countries continue to arm and encourage the militias. Whether it would stop if the neighbors actively tried to stop it is far from certain, but it is the only hope. If the situation continues to deteriorate, an agreement among the neighboring countries will be all the more necessary to prevent the conflict from spreading throughout the region. And the conflict will surely spread unless Iran and Saudi Arabia come to some agreement. The Bush administration is, of course, highly unlikely to pursue this recommendation because, among other things, it would entail setting some kind of timetable for the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. But even if it did decide to go against its nature and ask for help, how could it possibly succeed? Another administration with, say, James Baker as Secretary of State, would have a hard enough time persuading the Iranians to cooperate with the Great Satan, but this administration doesn't negotiate, even with friendly governments. It doesn't seem to know how. This is the most important recommendation in the report. The civil war in Iraq will certainly continue if neighboring countries continue to arm and encourage the militias. Whether it would stop if the neighbors actively tried to stop it is far from certain, but it is the only hope. If the situation continues to deteriorate, an agreement among the neighboring countries will be all the more necessary to prevent the conflict from spreading throughout the region. And the conflict will surely spread unless Iran and Saudi Arabia come to some agreement.

The Bush administration is, of course, highly unlikely to pursue this recommendation because, among other things, it would entail setting some kind of timetable for the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. But even if it did decide to go against its nature and ask for help, how could it possibly succeed? Another administration with, say, James Baker as Secretary of State, would have a hard enough time persuading the Iranians to cooperate with the Great Satan, but this administration doesn’t negotiate, even with friendly governments. It doesn’t seem to know how.

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